3rd March 2020
Ritz Carlton, Moscow

Agenda

How the government plans to manage fiscal policy and invest in the economy to trigger growth
  • Will the government take advantage of the current low interest rate environment to raise capital in 2020?
  • How is the Ministry planning to drive growth over the coming years? What strategies will be put in place to stimulate this growth?
  • A look into the government’s economic agenda for 2020 – what policies will be changing?
  • What is the evolving regulatory framework for capital markets activity?
Growth and/or stability: The Central Bank of Russia’s strategy to manage inflation whilst supporting growth in a low-rates world
  • How is the government’s balancing goals of promoting growth and staving off inflation?
  • FX and inflation targets for 2020: What is the Central Bank’s forecast? What policies will be implemented to hit targets?
  • Cut, hold, raise: What is the target rate of interest in 2020?
  • What are rates doing globally, and how does Russia’s CB policy relate to and deal with this?
Russian & CIS Sovereign capital markets strategy in 2020 and beyond
  • What are the needs for sovereign and sub-sovereign borrowers/issuers?
  • How will these needs be met? What do the Ministries of Finance have planned for issuance in the next 6-12 months? How are the navigating market challenges?
  • Where is the Debt Management Office finding liquidity in a sanctioned environment?
  • Debt management: How are sovereigns supporting GDP growth and infrastructure development while at the same time protecting ratings?
  • Case study: the road to Uzbekstian’s debut Eurobond
    • Why was 2019Q1 the right time to issue? What was the preparation process?
    • How was the desired subscription achieved? What was investor appetite?
    • What is planned next for Uzbekstian’s Ministry of Finance? What does the issuance mean for the region?
How are investors and bankers pricing Russian credit risk in the context of trade wars and a low-rate environment? How do international and local perspectives differ?
  • The search for yield: where does Russia sit in the global investor’s portfolio?
    • Does Russia’s country risk give it a defined edge over other EMs?
    • Are we seeing a rally in foreign investment in Russia?
  • Oil price, geopolitics and LIBOR as drivers of pricing: What is investor sentiment for Russian risk today?
  • Where are investors anticipating interests’ rates to head in 2020?
  • Do Russian investors favour Eurobond or Rouble issuances? To what degree are domestic investors looking abroad vs internally?
  • Is offshore capital being brought back home, and if so is it having an impact on liquidity and pricing?
  • What is the regulatory environment for Russia’s pension and life funds?
Optimising capital structures and funding: How are Russia’s blue-chips meeting their funding needs in 2020?
  • Growth, CAPEX, liability management: What are Russia’s top tier companies’ fund raising needs?
  • International vs local: Which markets offer the most attractive rates and terms?
  • What is the business case for loans in today’s low yield-environment?
  • How are Russia’s corporates hedging interest and FX risk?
  • Are private/international banks able to provide finance at the same competitive rates as local state-owned banks? What advantages can they play on? Where can they compete?
Understanding the business case for syndicated loans in a low-rate environment
  • What is driving deal flow in the loans market? Why is there an increasing demand for loans when bonds are pricing so competitively?
  • Where are corporates finding value in loans? Who is looking to borrow, and what are their needs? Who are the most appropriate candidates?
  • How do bilateral loans compare to syndications currently?
  • Ironing out the kinks: how has Russian LMA developed in the last year? What has been the extent of its implementation? How does it compare to English law in appeal? What additions have been made to the legislative framework for loans in general?
  • What pricing are international and local banks providing? How does pricing and tenure compare to DCM?
Decisions of debut debtors & emerging corporates: examining the experiences of first-time issuers
  • Why did the issuer opt to tap the capital markets rather than loan?
  • Why international or local, and why now?
    • How does the Eurobond market compare to local?
    • When is the right time to issue?
  • How are borrowers hedging their debt?
  • Lessons from the road: How was the desired pricing and subscription achieved?
  • What rating is needed, and from whom? What is the process for presenting to agencies?
  • Who are the potential future issuers? What lessons can they take away?
Optimising capital by combining debt and equity: what does 2020 hold for mezzanine financing?
  • Lack of investments in the market and sponsor capital and mezzanine capital as a substitute. Use of various instruments by Russian banks and investment companies.
  • Case study: mezzanine financing with quasi-equity cash upside instrument.
  • Case study: mezzanine financing of a large holding with lenders’ protections implemented by way of share retention agreements, corporate agreements and amendments shareholders agreement.
The business case for Prepayment Finance: Advantages and disadvantages outlined
  • Understanding the market environment and challenges commodity exporters are facing to secure financing for operations
  • Is Prepayment Finance considered debt? How is Prepayment Finance being used as an accounting tool?
  • Structure of Prepayment Financing: How is risk spread in prepayment finance? Who bears the majority – the creditor, supplier, or the end-buyer?
  • Involvement of non-bank investors in Prepayment Finance
  • Pre-Export Finance and other Structured Trade Finance solutions vs. Prepayment finance: Assessing the pros and cons
Where are the opportunities in Russia’s project finance landscape, and for whom? What is the role for commercial banks in the Project Finance Factory?
  • What are the objectives of the Project Finance Factory, and are they being achieved?
    • Case studies: Which projects have reached financial closure through the initiative? How were they structured? What was the experiences of the banks involved?
  • What projects are eligible? What are the criteria, and how widely can they be interpreted?
  • How can the regulatory environment be improved to ensure the initiative’s success?
  • Diversifying the pool: What opportunity is there for private and international banks to participate? What is their appetite, and what are the challenges they see?
  • Who is missing from Public-Private Partnerships, and what steps can be taken to promote their involvement?
  • Project finance vs on-balance sheet funding: Pros and cons of each model. When is either more appropriate?
Unlocking ESG financing – is this the new untapped pool of liquidity that issuers/borrowers have been looking for?
  • Sustainable financing vs green, bonds vs loans: what are the different structures, who are the eligible candidates for each?
  • How are banks, investors and regulators supporting Russian borrowers and issuers in their journey to sustainability?
  • The right candidate: Do you need to be a green company to use ESG instruments?
  • Why should Russian companies enhance their ESG capabilities? How can they monetise sustainability to get better pricing?
  • Understanding international and local investor appetite: who is looking at ESG investments and to what degree?
    • What initiatives are the government and regulators introducing to promote this area of financing? What policies, benchmarks and structures are needed? What is the current gap between local and international regulation?
What is driving rouble bond issuance in Russia’s local markets?
  • How can we explain the steady flow of rouble issuances? What are local market conditions, what are the needs and policies of Russia’s corporates, and what is the match?
  • What was the experience of a Belarusian issuer in Russia’s markets? Can we expect further issuances from outside of Russia and, if so, where from? What rating is needed?
  • · What are current issuances pricing at in yield and maturity?
  • Local pension funds and asset managers vs international investors – who are the biggest buyers of rouble bonds, and how do their criteria compare?